Tag: Apple

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My Apple Predictions. 2012 edition

Last year I published a list Apple predictions and I will post a complete score card. However, some of my predictions can not be judged until Apple announces its first quarter results on January 24th. I will however provide my 2012 predictions now.

iPad
The iPad 3 will be announced February 28th and released March 16th. The iPad 3 will include a Retina Display with a resolution of 2048×1536. The case will largely look like the current iPad but Apple will introduce colors (again) like the iPod Nano and possibly patterns like the old Flower Power and Blue Dalmatian iMacs.

The cellular equipped iPad 3 will come with LTE radios in addition to the 3g and 2g radios they currently have. The large battery capacity of the iPad will make this luxury a possibility even though the iPhone 5 will lag behind with 3g.

The iPad 3 will also have the new quad-core A6 processor and get the same battery life as the current iPad except when using the LTE radio.

The memory options will remain16, 32, and 64 gb. This will be the last iOS device to include the 30 pin dock connector. The iPad 3 will get Siri. Prices will remain the same.

The current iPad 2 will continue as a discount model to fight the Kindle Fire and what-ever 7 inch piece of crap Eric Schmidt is talking about. The iPad 2 will only be available in 16 gb, but will still be available with WiFi or WiFi +cellular. The iPad 2 will be priced at $349 for the WiFi version and $479 for the WiFi +cellular

In addition to Verizon and AT&T, Sprint will get both iPads. Sprint will introduce a discounted price that bundles the wireless internet for your phone and iPad in order to solidify its position as the bargain wireless plan.

Last year I estimated cumulative sales of 65 million iPads (total of 2010 and 2011 iPad sales). Barring a total sales frenzy over this past Christmas I’m was a wee bit optimistic, with cumulative sales coming in closer to 54 million (that assumes iPad sales of 14 million in the Christmas quarter, 90% more than last Christmas, and 30% more than previous quarter). I am going to predict sales of 60 million iPads in 2012.

iPhone
The iPhone 5 will be introduced in September and go on sale two weeks later. The message of the design is durability. Apple will use the same nano-coating that Motorola used on the RAZR to make it more water repellant. Apple will brand this with a unique name and claim it to be a major breakthrough.

Continuing with the theme of durability, Apple will abandon the 30-pin dock connector and seal the entire body of the phone. All data connections will need to be done wirelessly. A new MagSafe-like connector will be introduced for charging. Additionally the iPhone will lose the glass back, and it will be replaced with an aluminum one like on the iPad.

NFC will be added to go along with an  electronic wallet system called iCash. This will be linked to your iTunes account.

The phone will be slightly thinner than the iPhone 4, but will largely have the same form factor. There will not be a tear-drop shaped design. The screen size remains 3.5 inches. Like the iPad 3, it will be released in multiple colors. The rear camera gets better, the device gets thinner, the phone receives the quad core A6. 

With the introduction of the iPhone 5, the iPhone 4S is only offered with 16 gb and moves down to $99. The 8 gb iPhone 4 becomes the free offering in developed countries and the 3GS soldiers on as the price leader in emerging economies.

Last year I predicted Apple would sell 65 million iPhones. As of September 1, Apple has sold 56 million and analysts are expecting 30 million in the Christmas quarter, for a total of 86 million iPhones. So I blew that. 86 million represents an increase of 181% over 2010, which was an 189% increase over 2009 which was an increase of 183% over 2008. I’m going to guess that iPhone sales continue this incredible streak and grow by 180% in 2012 so that is 154 million. My official guess is 160 million iPhones in 2012 (that seems totally insane given that Apple has cumulative sales of 146 million iPhones as of September 2011).
Data from Asymco. 
iPods
After a stale year with no changes besides a white iPod touch the iPod line gets a significant revision.
In October, a month after the iPhone announcement, Apple will unveil the new iPod lineup. It’s tag line will be something like “Something big. Something small.” The iPod Nano is the something small. It adopts iOS and becomes the smallest general purpose computer. Like the iPhone it will lose the 30-pin doc connector while gaining WiFi and bluetooth. Apple will open the Nano to a specialized corner of the App with simple single function apps that incorporate voice control and feedback. The Nano will also gain a front and rear facing camera. Yes I know this is exactly what I predicted a year ago, but in the grand-tradition of Apple prognostication, I wasn’t wrong, just a year too early.
The iPod touch goes big. It gains a 4 or 4.5 inch screen and is marketed as a game machine and Kindle competitor. It bumps up to the A5 processor and remains just as thin as the current device. The front face gains multiple colors but the back remains polished stainless steel. It also loses the 30-pin dock connector. All of those sightings of a teardrop shaped, 4-inch screened iPhone 5 from last summer were actually early proto-types of the 2012 iPod Touch. 
Apple offers an iPod Touch with a cellular radio for the first time, just like in the iPad. The data rates are also identical to the iPad. No LTE option. Prices: 
  • 8 gb   WiFi $229 
  • 32 gb WiFi $329        WiFi + Cellular $399 
  • 64 gb WiFi $429        WiFi + Cellular $499 

iOS
iOS 6 is announced at WWDC in June and roles out to all iOS devices in September a week before the introduction of the iPhone 5. The marque feature of iOS6 is Siri which becomes available on the iPhone 4, iPod 4th Generation and all three iPads. Siri leaves beta and opens up to allow limited third party software access to new voice and speech APIs. TV shows and movies get the iCloud experience and can be downloaded repeatedly. FaceTime over 3g.
Macintosh
The big story of 2011 is the repositioning of the MacBook Pro line. After the MacBook Air displaced the MacBook in 2011, it will set its sights on the iconic MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pro 13 inch will disappear entirely. The 15 and 17 inch will remain.
The Macbook Air line will add a 15 inch model. The MacBook Airs will begin to offer a cellular modem option.

MacPro will get updated without fanfare in March. Despite much handwringing, this will not be the final update of the tower mac which continues to serve a small, but influential, sliver of the Macintosh family. 
Apple will introduce a cloud back up service which will move Time Machine from a spare drive on your desk to one of Apple’s data centers. This will be a pay-to-play service: one year of back-up will be provided with new machines and it will be $100 per year after that.

Throughout 2012 there is not a peep about the next version of OS X.

Apple TV

Apple introduces a revamped Apple TV at WWDC and it goes on sale in September. It remains the little iOS box that is currently sold with a bigger processor and a new version of the OS and Siri. An iOS device running iOS 6 will be required to act as the microphone for Siri. It will also gain the ability to add apps from the iTunes App Store. The Apple TV Set will also be introduced in June for a September or October role out. The Apple TV set (iPanel?) will not offer any significant feature beyond the Apple TV. However, it will come bundled with a 7 inch iPad to act as a remote control, game controller and auxiliary screen. Additionally, any iPhone, iPad and iPod running iOS will be able to duplicate the functions of this uber-remote.

Apple

Apple will spill some of their massive war chest to lock-up exclusive content deals. This will include sports, movies and original content. They will continue to purchase small engineering-focussed companies but no other major merger.

Tim Cook will remain the CEO and there will be a steady trickle of VPs leaving the company for other CEO positions. Names that will stay include Cook, Cue, Ive and Schiller. Forstall, Mansfield are among the Veeps who may move on.

A lot of companies might try to entice the architect of the iPhone to be their top guy and with a young Tim Cook (born 1960) secure as CEO, an ambitious Forstall might make the jump. Can you imagine Scott Forstall being tapped to replace Ballmer at Microsoft?

With the release of the new Apple TV the stock will be seriously goosed. I expect a 52-week high of $667 and the stock to close 2012 at $605.
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Steve, you put a dent in the universe

The link is to  Apple.com
Google, keeping it classy
jonathon mak

Brian Lam on Steve Jobs during the lost iPhone 4 story
Flags at 1 Infinite Loop
Steve and wife, Laurene, after his last product introduction, WWDC 2011 iCloud 

John Siracusa’s touching remembrance


In the official version Richard Dreyfus is the narrator. I had never heard this version with Steve at the mike.

Egg Freckles is a Apple website, the term is from a Doonesbury comic poking fun at the Newton’s terrible handwriting recognition.

Gruber, always subtle, changes the background of Daring Fireball to a darker, almost black, grey.

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Good luck Steve and thanks for your dent in the Universe

We’re here to make a dent in the universe. Otherwise, why even be here? We’re creating a completely new consciousness, like an artist or a poet. That’s how you have to think of this. We’re rewriting the history of human thought with what we’re doing. –Steve Jobs

I was sad to hear the news of Job’s resignation from Apple. My wife and I watched Pirates of Silicon Valley as a toast to the man who I view as a modern Leonardo De Vinci. A genius who revolutionized our world.

I said hi to Steve once. On the day the Fifth Avenue Store opened in New York I was walking around the plaza and saw Steve walking up to the store with another person. I was about ten feet away and I said, “Steve!”
He turned to me and I said, “You changed my life.”
He smiled, said thank-you and then kept walking.
I felt like such a dork. “you changed my life.” Ughh. I wish I had said something better.
It was 2006 and all I had with me was a Palm Treo

Later that night, my wife and I saw a show (I think it was Avenue Q) and then went to check out the scene at the Cube. We waited in line and went down into the store on opening night. It’s the only Apple event I’ve witnessed.

Still smiling after saying hi to Steve hours
earlier, and my extremely understanding wife
The resignation letter states that he will continue to have a role at Apple, and it’s likely we will see little different from Apple but as I wrote when he took his most recent leave of absence, “I want to live in a world where the man who launched the PC revolution is still leading it.” As of today, that’s no longer the case.

So long Steve, and thanks for your dent in the universe.

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Safari’s Reader function in Lion

I upgraded to Lion on my MacBook Air last week and I’m using Safari in full screen mode. One of the side-effects of this is that many text based sites are too wide for comfortable reading.

Clicking “Reader” in the address bar (or command-shift-R) drops a shadow across the page and opens an overlay containing the core text of the page minus annoying ads and other visual distractions. Really nice.

Click here
and see this uncluttered clean version of the text

The reader feature was introduced with Safari 5 as part of Snow Leopard but it wasn’t until I started living in full-screen mode that the utility of this feature presented itself.

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Apple customer service

I will probably be an Apple customer for life. This past week-end I brought my 16 month old iPhone 3gs to the Genius Bar. The screen has a scratch and a couple of big gouges in it. However, my problem was not cosmetic, the front button was intermittantly not working. In classic repair shop syndrome the button, miraculously healed itself on the morning of my appointment. I brought it in anyways and the Genius changed out the glass in about 10 minutes and the button started working perfectly. Total charge: Zero. Zilch. Nada.

I have had the following genius bar experiences with Apple:

  • April 2011: Apple replaces the screen on my iPhone 3gs.
  • March 2011: Apple gives me a replacement iPad after I drop and shatter the screen on my year old iPad.
  • August 2010 They replaced my Dad’s iPhone 3gs after he got caught in a rain storm and fried the speaker.
  • August 2009 My wife’s iPhone 3g broke after a system upgrade. Apple replaced the phone, despite being 13 months old and out of warranty.
  • September 2008 My iPhone 3g’s front button became wonky after a trip to the beach. Apple replaced the phone.
  • July 2007 My PPC iMac is giving me fits. I bring it in for repair and it is still wonky after getting it “fixed.” I bring the thing back and they replace it with a brand new Intel iMac.
“Newton… A Mind Forever Voyaging Through Strange Seas of Thought … Alone.” William Wordsworth
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iPhone: the ultimate tool for patient empowerment.

I walk into a patient’s encounter today and he is reading Twitter on his iPhone 4. We exchanged Twitter handles and began discussing his diabetic nephropathy.

I ask how his blood sugars have been and he fires up Glucose Buddy and proceeds to show me all of his blood sugar reading since March of 2010. Then he e-mails me the data.

When we discuss blood pressure, he fires up the iPhone again and shows me iBP. When he sends me his home blood pressure readings I get the choice of receiving them as text, html or CSV. Awesome.

Glucose Buddy for the iPhone
iBP for the iPhone

Here’s is what the e-mail output looks like:

This was the first patient I have met who is using his phone to document his health. I hope this is a trend because I am sick of patients telling me that they wrote down all of their blood pressures but left the notebook at home. It’s nice to see a cell phone do something other than interrupt a clinical encounter.
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And the baby with the baboon heart. Or It’s an iPad world

I was giving my cardiorenal syndrome lecture on Friday and during the question and answer session one of the residents asked why furosemide drips were more effective than boluses. I explained about the results from this Cochrane review and this recent RCT. Unfortunately I had not read the table of contents from this weeks NEJM:
So of course one of the interns mentions the article and asked if I had read it. I copped to the truth but what happened next was incredible. Across the lecture room I could see dozens of iPads flick to life as nearly everyone started pulling up NEJM.org to check out the latest.

Medicine is magical and magical is art
The Boy in the Bubble
And the baby with the baboon heart

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Get better Steve

Tim Cook, at Apple’s forth quarter 2008 earnings call in early 2009, right after Jobs took his first leave of absence to receive a liver transplant:

…There is extraordinary breadth and depth and tenure among the Apple executive team, and they lead 35,000 employees that I would call wicked smart – and that’s in all areas of the company from engineering to marketing to operations and sales and all the rest. And the values of our company are extremely well entrenched. We believe that we are on the face of the earth to make great products and that’s not changing.

We are constantly focusing on innovating. We believe in the simple not the complex. We believe that we need to own and control the primary technologies behind the products that we make, and participate only in markets where we can make a significant contribution.

We believe in saying no to thousands of projects, so that we can really focus on the few that are truly important and meaningful to us. We believe in deep collaboration and cross-pollination of our groups, which allow us to innovate in a way that others cannot.

And frankly, we don’t settle for anything less than excellence in every group in the company, and we have the self-honesty to admit when we’re wrong and the courage to change. And I think regardless of who is in what job those values are so embedded in this company that Apple will do extremely well…

Just like everyone, I want Steve Jobs to get better. I want to live in a world where the man who launched the PC revolution is still leading it. All the news today, however, is about how doomed Apple is without Jobs. It’s a little over the top. Look at Tim “acting CEO” Cook’s words. That is an off the cusp speech and it is pitch perfect. Those words could’ve come right from Steve’s brain. Apple is going to be fine.

Hat tip to Asymco

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My Apple predictions for 2011

Every year the gadget blogs and podcasts give their predictions for the next year. I’m watch Apple pretty closely and I think I have a pretty good feel for the next year. Here are my predictions for 2011. Let’s see how I do.

iPad

The iPad 2 comes out in April after being announced 2-3 weeks earlier. Not a lot of surptrises. It has front and back face-time cameras, weighs less, goes faster and is thinner. It will have a higher resolution screen that Apple will brand a Retina Display but it will not have the same pixel density of the iPhone 4. There wil be three versions, WiFi only, a 3g version with CDMA and a new 4G LTE version from Verizon, AT&T and eventually Sprint.

The current iPad, with the low resolution screen, no camera will live on as a low cost model at $399. With the upcoming entry of Palm, RIM and Android in to the tablet space Apple will try to suck all the atmosphere from the room by lowering the entry level price as aggressively as possible. This will upset all the other competitors pricing plans and provide less maneuvering room in the price umbrella under the iPad.

By the end of the year Apple will have sold 70 million iPads (total 2010 an 2011 sales) and have a market share of 70+%.

iPhone

iPhone 5 is introduced in June and goes on sale in July. It sports the same form factor as iPhone 4 but has a faster processor, longer battery life, and better front and rear camera. The major new feature is near field communication. Apple sticks with 16 and 32 gb memory options. Prices remain the same.
The Verizon iPhone is introduced with the iPhone 5, the first iPhone 4 for Verizon is the $99 8 gb model introduced along with the iPhone 5. 
The white iPhone makes it first appearance since the 3gs as an iPhone 5.
Apple will sell a 65 million iPhones in 2011.

iOS
iOS 5 focuses on the cloud. Music and movies purchased through iTunes can now be streamed over the net. All devices tied to the same apple ID can stream the content, iMacs, Apple TV, iPods, iPads and iPhones.

iOS 5 also gets over the air updating of the OS and over the air continuous back-up, a internet enabled Time Machine back-up service. This major update will better allow iPads to be used without a computer to tether to.

Document management moves forward allowing seamless management of a single document on an iPad then desktop mac and then an iPhone. The document lives in the cloud with synced copies on all of your apple devices.

iOS 5 also adds new APIs that allow software developers to accept voice control and voice feedback for applications.

iOS 5 allows FaceTime over 3g.

Macintosh
The big story for Mac hardware will be the addition of Lightpeak to replace firewire and display port. By the end of 2011 all Macintosh’s will ship with Lightpeak. RIP Firewire.

MacBook Pros will all go SSDs. There maybe an option for a second drive, a magnetic spinning hard drive but the primary drive will be an SSD. The MacBook will continue to have a spinning hard drive further differentiating the Pro models form the baseline MacBook. This trend will continue across the iMac and MacPro lines both of which will be updated to include an SSD as the primary drive with spinning hard drives as additional drive options.

Video professionals and HD enthusiasts looking for Macs to ship with Blu-Ray will continue to be disappointed. No Blue-Ray drives will ship in any Macintosh’s.

MacOS 10.7 Lion will be announced at WWDC to be introduced in the Fall. 10.7 will introduce a new look and feel with a more iOS-like theme.

The Mac App Store will be a huge hit and will reinvigorate innovation on the PC. The amount of money most people spend on desktop apps will rise and this will intropduce many people to the creativity of the independent Mac Software developer. This will further loosen Microsoft’s and Adobe’s hold on on the software market as people get exposed to a myriad of less expensive, less complex and more focused single purpose applications.

iLife 2011 will add a new application. This application will allow hobbyists, enthusiasts and educators to create interactive content for the iPad. A Hypercard for a new era. See this post.

iPods
In September the big announcement will be that the iPod Nano adopts iOS and becomes the smallest general purpose computer. Apple will open the Nano to a specialized corner of the App store where developer focus on voice and speech for much of the interface.

iPod classic goes away and along with it the last click wheel iPod. The iPod Touch gets a version with 128 gb to replace the lost Classic.

Apple TV adds apps that primarily function as channels. So there is the National Geographic app which allows you to view NG video content on your TV.

Apple
Apple will not release a release a large screen TV or any other sized TV.

They will not make a major acquisition, though they will continue to gobble up small, engineering-focussed companies with core technologies.

The Apple-Google  will not jettison Google or Google Maps.

AAPL will hit a high of $415 and finish the year at $395.

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Steve Jobs and the revisionist history of Randall Stross

A few weeks ago the Sunday New York Times had an op ed by Randall Stross regarding Steve Jobs. Stross suggested that Jobs’ leaving Apple in 1985 was instrumental in him becoming the capable executive that he is today rather than “the worst personnel decision.”

In 1993, Stross released a book, Steve Jobs and the Next Big Thing, chronicling the NeXT computer company and its struggles. The book is out of print but I found an old copy and read it a few years ago. The book is well researched and Stross provides ample evidence to to support his conclusion that Jobs was an immature brat, a terrible leader, a liar, and a poor manager. The picture he paints of Steve Jobs is the classic story of the entrepreneur conquring the world, becoming egocentric and then failing miserably when attempts to replicate his initial success. When I read the book, in 2007, I was in possetion of invaluable data not available to Stross in 1993. Jobs masterful turn around of Apple.

So everytime I read a chapter I had to accept the anecdotes Stross recounted while rejecting his thesis and attempt to fit the data to a different conclusion. It was a fun reading experience.
In another recent bit of news on Steve Jobs, take a look at John Scully’s interview with Leander Kahney. Its a fascinating view of their relationship and what Steve meant to Apple.